Did Madagascar’s recent youth-led protests inadvertently pave the way for a military takeover?
In short: In October 2025, widespread civil unrest in Madagascar against corruption and economic hardship culminated in a military coup. While protestors sought democratic reform, the armed forces exploited the chaos to seize power, raising questions about whether this transition represents a genuine shift or merely a cycle of recurring military intervention.
The unrest began on September 25, 2025, fueled by chronic water and power shortages. As protests expanded, they drew inspiration from global youth movements, utilizing decentralized coordination and social media to demand transparency and economic opportunity. By the time the crisis peaked, 70% of the population lived below the poverty line, with 45% of the working-age population unemployed, creating a volatile environment for the administration of President Andry Rajoelina.
On October 11, an influential military logistics branch known as CAPSAT defected to join the demonstrators. By October 12, this unit had seized control of the armed forces, and on October 14, they appointed Colonel Michael Randrianirina as interim president. The new regime quickly dismantled key democratic pillars, including the Senate and the High Constitutional Court, while installing a well-connected businessman, Herintsalama Rajaonarivelo, as Prime Minister. This move signaled to many that the military prioritized the interests of corrupt elites over the protestors' demands.
This is not the first time CAPSAT has intervened; the unit was also responsible for the 2009 coup. Although the current junta has proposed a two-year timeline for elections, analysts warn that this period may simply be a test of public resolve. If the military fails to secure a political advantage, they may attempt to extend their rule, mirroring trends seen in other African nations. While the EU-Africa Chamber of Commerce notes that most citizens prefer democracy, the persistence of anti-establishment sentiment leaves the country's political future uncertain.
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Sources
- Summary by Intellect · source: Cloaked in a Cause: Madagascar’s ‘Gen Z’ Protests and the Inadvertent Preservation of Power - Georgetown Security Studies Review
- Also: 2025 Malagasy coup d'état
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