Climate change could massively increase virus-sharing among wild mammals by 2070

Health · Published 2 October 2026 Swipe more like this →

In short: Researchers modeled how climate change and land-use shifts might alter the ranges of 3,139 mammal species by 2070. The simulation found that species previously kept apart geographically would increasingly mix in high-altitude regions, biodiversity-rich areas, and crowded parts of Asia and Africa, driving an estimated 4,000 new cross-species viral transmission events.

Bats, able to travel long distances, were predicted to drive most of this new sharing, raising concerns about routes toward future human infection. The authors note this shift may already be underway, and that keeping warming below 2°C would not prevent it.

As a simulation of future scenarios rather than an observation of real spillover, the findings describe a projected risk, not a confirmed event, and actual outcomes could differ.

Why it matters: Climate change may reshape where animals live in ways that could raise the risk of new viruses jumping between species and eventually to humans.

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