The sudden collapse of Artsakh: How a 24-hour offensive ended a decades-long conflict.

The sudden collapse of Artsakh: How a 24-hour offensive ended a decades-long conflict.
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In short: In September 2023, Azerbaijan launched a decisive military offensive against the breakaway Republic of Artsakh. Within two days, the region’s de facto government surrendered, triggering a mass exodus of nearly the entire ethnic Armenian population. This rapid collapse effectively ended a conflict that had defined the region for over thirty years.

The 2023 offensive followed a ten-month blockade of the Lachin corridor, which had already crippled the region by restricting access to food, medicine, and essential infrastructure. On 19 September, Azerbaijan initiated what it termed 'local anti-terrorist activities,' citing land mines as a pretext. The operation targeted the self-declared Republic of Artsakh, which had functioned as a de facto independent state since the First Nagorno-Karabakh War ended in 1994, despite being internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan.

By 20 September, a ceasefire was mediated by Russian peacekeepers, mandating the disarmament of the Artsakh Defence Army. The terms led to the formal decree on 28 September by President Samvel Shahramanyan to dissolve all state institutions by 1 January 2024. However, the political status of this dissolution remains contested; in December 2023, Shahramanyan later claimed from exile in Yerevan that the decree was invalid, asserting that the republic’s existence was rooted in the will of its people rather than administrative paperwork.

The human cost of the offensive was profound. Nearly the entire population of 120,000 ethnic Armenians fled through the Lachin corridor to Armenia, fearing ethnic cleansing and persecution. The exodus was marked by tragedy, including a fuel depot explosion in Berkadzor that killed at least 170 people. As refugees crossed the border, Azerbaijani authorities screened those leaving, detaining several former officials, including former state minister Ruben Vardanyan and former presidents Arkadi Ghukasyan, Bako Sahakyan, and Arayik Harutyunyan, on various charges.

The event marked a definitive shift in the region's demographics and governance. President Ilham Aliyev declared that his 'iron fist' had consigned the concept of a separate Armenian state in Karabakh to history. While international observers and human rights organizations had warned of the risks of ethnic cleansing, the rapid military victory and subsequent flight of the Armenian population effectively integrated the territory into Azerbaijan, concluding a cycle of conflict that began with the demands of Karabakh Armenians in 1988.

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