Why the man who defined earthquake intensity hated the idea of predicting them

Nature · Published 3 October 2026 Swipe more like this →

In short: Charles Richter revolutionized seismology by replacing subjective damage reports with an objective, logarithmic scale. Yet, the man whose name became synonymous with measuring the earth's power remained deeply skeptical of prediction, famously dismissing requests to forecast tremors with a wry, standard reply: five o'clock tomorrow morning.

Before 1935, seismologists relied on the 1902 Mercalli scale, which classified earthquakes based on human perception and building damage. This method was inherently flawed, as it could not accurately rate shocks in remote areas and depended heavily on local construction quality. Charles Richter, working with Beno Gutenberg at the California Institute of Technology, sought a more rigorous, instrumental approach. Inspired by Kiyoo Wadati’s work on seismic waves, they developed a logarithmic scale that measured the actual displacement of the earth recorded by seismographs.

Richter borrowed the term 'magnitude' from astronomy, where it describes the brightness of stars. The scale was designed to be logarithmic, meaning each whole number increase represents a tenfold increase in measured amplitude. While Gutenberg’s contribution was substantial, his aversion to publicity left his name off the final title. Richter eventually advocated for his colleague's recognition, particularly for Gutenberg's work in expanding the scale for global application. Despite the scale's success, Richter was famously dismissive of its precision in casual settings, once remarking that 'logarithmic plots are a device of the devil.'

Beyond his namesake scale, Richter was a dedicated academic who rarely published in peer-reviewed journals, preferring to focus on teaching and practical applications like building codes. He was a vocal advocate for removing hazardous ornaments from municipal buildings to prevent injuries during quakes. Even after his 1970 retirement, he continued his daily research, maintaining a rigorous, evidence-based approach to seismology that rejected the speculative nature of earthquake prediction. He died in 1985, leaving behind a legacy that transformed how humanity quantifies the violent, unpredictable movements of the ground beneath our feet.

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