How Latvia's 2022 parliamentary election reshaped the nation's political landscape and government coalition

How Latvia's 2022 parliamentary election reshaped the nation's political landscape and government coalition
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In short: In October 2022, Latvia held parliamentary elections that solidified a pro-Western trajectory while delivering a stunning blow to established parties. Incumbent Prime Minister Krišjānis Kariņš secured a decisive victory, yet the results triggered a complex realignment of power, ultimately leading to a new government and a significant shift in parliamentary representation.

The 2022 election for the Fourteenth Saeima utilized an open-list proportional representation system, where 100 members are elected across five multi-member constituencies. A unique feature of this process is the ability for voters to influence candidate rankings directly. By marking a plus sign next to a name, a voter adds a positive vote, while crossing out a name registers a negative vote. These adjustments, combined with the base list votes, determine which specific candidates fill a party's allocated seats, provided the party clears the 5% national threshold.

The outcome was marked by the success of New Unity, led by Krišjānis Kariņš, which captured 19% of the vote and 26 seats. Conversely, the election saw the collapse of the Harmony party, which had previously topped three consecutive general elections but failed to clear the 5% threshold, finishing at 4.9%. Analysts attributed this decline to internal divisions regarding the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, which alienated both ethnic Latvian and ethnic Russian voters. This fragmentation benefited newer entities like For Stability!, which successfully entered the legislature.

Following the election, President Egils Levits tasked Kariņš with forming a new cabinet. The resulting coalition with the United List and the National Alliance was sworn in on 14 December 2022. However, this government proved unstable; by August 2023, disagreements over cabinet composition led to the collapse of the coalition and Kariņš's resignation. A new administration, led by Evika Siliņa and comprising New Unity, the Union of Greens and Farmers, and The Progressives, was subsequently sworn in on 14 September 2023, marking a further evolution in the country's governance.

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