Baden-Württemberg's 2026 election saw the Greens remain the largest party despite intense polling pressure.
In short: In a surprising turn, the Greens defied pre-election polls to secure 30.2% of the vote, narrowly outpacing the CDU. This result ensured the continuation of the Green-CDU coalition, leading to the historic appointment of Cem Özdemir as the first Minister-President of Turkish background in Germany's history.
The 2026 Baden-Württemberg state election, held on 8 March 2026, marked a significant transition as long-serving Minister-President Winfried Kretschmann retired. The campaign was characterized by a late surge for the Green Party, largely attributed to the personal popularity of their lead candidate, Cem Özdemir. Despite the CDU leading in polls for much of the preceding period, the Greens finished as the largest party with 30.2% of the vote, while the CDU followed closely at 29.7%.
A notable feature of this election was the application of a reformed electoral system. Following 2022 legislative changes, voters utilized a new mixed-member proportional system featuring two distinct votes. While the CDU performed strongly in the constituency component, winning 56 of 70 districts, the overall seat distribution remained proportional. The resulting Landtag expanded significantly to 157 seats, exceeding its statutory size of 120 due to the allocation of overhang and leveling seats.
The political landscape remained constrained by the 'firewall' policy, which saw the CDU refuse any cooperation with the Alternative for Germany (AfD). Although the AfD nearly doubled its previous performance to reach 18.8% and 35 seats, it remained excluded from government. Consequently, the Greens and CDU renewed their coalition. This outcome also highlighted the struggles of smaller parties; the SPD recorded its worst result since 1945 with 5.5%, and the FDP fell below the 5% threshold, losing its representation in the state for the first time.
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Sources
- Summary by Intellect · source: 2026 Baden-Württemberg state election
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