The unexpected resurgence of Norway's social democratic forces in 2025
In short: After years of plummeting polls, Jonas Gahr Støre’s Labour Party has secured a surprising victory. Amidst a shifting political landscape and the return of a former Prime Minister, the 2025 Norwegian election has fundamentally reshaped the nation's opposition and governing dynamics.
The 2025 Norwegian parliamentary election, held on 8 September, resulted in a victory for incumbent Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre and his Labour Party. Despite facing years of poor opinion polling, the Labour Party secured 53 seats with 28.0% of the vote. This win allowed the red-green bloc to maintain a majority with 88 seats, enabling Støre to continue leading a minority government. The election was notable for its high voter turnout, the highest recorded since 1989.
The political landscape saw significant shifts in the opposition. The right-wing populist Progress Party, led by Sylvi Listhaug, achieved its highest seat count in history with 47 seats, making it the largest opposition party. Conversely, the Conservative Party, led by Erna Solberg, suffered a major setback, falling to third place with 14.6% of the vote—its worst result since 2005. Following the results, Solberg announced she would step down as party leader.
A key driver of the Labour Party's comeback was the 'Stoltenberg effect.' The return of former Prime Minister Jens Stoltenberg to the cabinet as Minister of Finance in January 2025, following the Centre Party's exit from the governing coalition, was credited with boosting the party's polling by 10 points. This reshuffle occurred after the Centre Party left the coalition due to disagreements over EU energy policy.
The election was conducted via party-list proportional representation across 19 constituencies. While the system includes a 4% national threshold for levelling seats, the allocation process uses a modified Sainte-Lague method with a 1.4 divisor. While the Green Party achieved a historic victory by surpassing this threshold, the Liberal Party failed to clear it, leaving them with only three MPs.
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- Summary by Intellect · source: 2025 Norwegian parliamentary election
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