Why Indonesia is moving its capital city to escape a sinking future

Nature · Published 3 October 2026 Swipe more like this →

In short: Indonesia is one of the world's most climate-vulnerable nations, facing a dual crisis of rising seas and rapid land subsidence. With Jakarta sinking by up to 10 centimeters annually due to groundwater extraction, the government is relocating the capital to Borneo to avoid a catastrophic infrastructure collapse by 2050.

Indonesia’s geography makes it uniquely exposed to climate change. As the world's largest archipelago, it faces extreme weather, including floods and droughts, which threaten its vast biodiversity and agricultural output. The nation is also a major greenhouse gas emitter, driven largely by deforestation and a heavy reliance on coal power. Despite international commitments like the Paris Agreement, emissions rose by 2.2% between 2014 and 2019, and the country struggles with a high prevalence of climate change denial.

The crisis in Jakarta is particularly acute. While global sea levels rise by 3 to 10 millimeters per year, the city is sinking at a rate of 75 to 100 millimeters annually. This is largely attributed to the over-extraction of groundwater, a consequence of inadequate water infrastructure that leaves many residents without access to clean piped water. Experts predict that without intervention, 95% of Northern Jakarta could be submerged by 2050. This existential threat has forced the government to initiate the relocation of the capital to East Kalimantan on the island of Borneo.

Beyond urban centers, Indonesia's natural carbon sinks are under siege. The country holds 24% of the world's mangrove forests, yet 40% have been lost or degraded over the last three decades. Similarly, peatlands—which store massive amounts of carbon—are being drained and burned for agriculture, turning a natural climate buffer into a significant source of emissions. These fires, alongside ocean acidification and coral bleaching, are devastating marine ecosystems that support millions of livelihoods. As fish populations decline and agricultural yields face heat stress, the nation must balance its economic reliance on forestry and mining with the urgent need for sustainable land management and renewable energy.

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