Will the world's last wild places be sacrificed to feed a growing population?

Nature · Published 3 October 2026 Swipe more like this →

In short: As global temperatures rise, the very landscapes we consider untouchable are becoming unexpectedly fertile. New research suggests that vast stretches of pristine wilderness, from the Arctic tundra to the Amazon, are at risk of being converted into farmland to satisfy a human population expected to exceed 10 billion by the 2080s.

Currently, wilderness covers roughly one-quarter of the Earth, encompassing massive ecosystems like the Sahara, the Amazon rainforest, and the Arctic tundra. These areas have remained largely intact for thousands of years, though they are increasingly under threat. Since 1990, an estimated 3.3 million square kilometres of wilderness—an area comparable to the size of India—has vanished, primarily due to agricultural expansion in tropical forests, deserts, and grasslands.

A study published in Current Biology, led by Dr. Alexandra Gardner, highlights a surprising shift: warming temperatures are making previously inhospitable high-latitude regions suitable for crops. The research found that 40% of the land that could become agriculturally viable by the 2060s is currently untouched wilderness. Specifically, three-quarters of the high-latitude land expected to become suitable for farming is presently wild, representing about 10% of the total wilderness in those regions.

The scale of potential loss depends heavily on future climate scenarios. In an intermediate scenario where temperatures rise by more than 2.5°C, approximately 1.85 million square kilometres of wilderness could become suitable for farming—an expanse more than seven times larger than the United Kingdom. Under more extreme warming, this figure could reach 2.75 million square kilometres. While conversion to farmland is not certain, researchers warn that protecting these biodiversity hotspots and improving agricultural efficiency will be essential to prevent their destruction.

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