Why Kīlauea’s recent fiery outbursts are baffling volcanologists and rewriting the rules of eruption

Countries & Cities · Published 30 September 2026 Swipe more like this →

In short: Kīlauea is one of the world's most active volcanoes, but its recent behavior has taken an unexpected turn. Since December 2024, the summit has surged with intense, frequent lava fountains. Scientists are now racing to understand why this volatile-rich magma is behaving like a shaken bottle of soda.

Kīlauea, a shield volcano on Hawaii Island, has long been a global benchmark for volcanic activity. For decades, it was defined by relatively gentle, effusive eruptions. From 1983 until 2018, the volcano poured lava from the Puʻu ʻŌʻō vent, a period that stands as its most voluminous output in 500 years. This era ended abruptly in April 2018, when magma shifted to the Lower East Rift Zone, destroying 700 homes and causing $1 billion in economic damage. Following this, the volcano entered a period of relative quiet, even forming a water lake in the Halema‘uma‘u crater that was eventually boiled away by renewed summit activity.

The current phase, beginning in December 2024, has introduced a more erratic and intense pattern. Volcanologists have observed 38 eruptive episodes through early December 2025, characterized by lava fountains reaching heights of 1,000 feet. These events are driven by a surge of volatile-rich magma, which contains high levels of dissolved gases. As this magma reaches the surface, the rapid expansion of these gases causes the lava to fizz and fountain violently. This shift has pushed the volcano's spectral radiance—a measure of thermal energy—to levels two or three times higher than the baseline observed before the 2018 eruption.

While the last 200 years have been dominated by steady, effusive flows, the geologic record suggests Kīlauea is capable of much more violent, explosive behavior. Between 1500 and 1800, groundwater mixing with magma triggered significantly more destructive events. Scientists are now using advanced monitoring tools like MODVOLC and MIROVA to track these thermal anomalies in real time. By analyzing data from NASA’s Aqua and Terra satellites, researchers hope to determine if the volcano is entering a new, more explosive cycle or if these recent surges are merely a temporary deviation from its historical norm.

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