The 2024 mpox surge marks a shift toward higher transmissibility

Health · Published 18 October 2026 Swipe more like this →

In short: While the 2022 global mpox outbreak was largely contained, a new variant is rewriting the rules of transmission. Emerging in Central Africa, this strain is moving faster and hitting harder, challenging our previous assumptions about how the virus behaves in human populations.

The current epidemic, centered in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), is driven by a new variant known as clade 1b. Unlike the 2022 outbreak—which involved clade IIb and was largely self-limiting—the current strain has shown a significant increase in human-to-human transmissibility. A systematic review and meta-analysis published in BMJ Global Health found that the reproduction number (R) for clade I mpox rose from 0.71 between 1970 and 2017 to 1.23 for subclades Ib/Ia after 2023. This shift suggests the virus is becoming more efficient at spreading.

The impact of this new strain is notably more severe. Data from the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (ACDC) indicates that the present outbreak carries a 3–4% mortality rate, which represents a significant jump from the sub-1% figure recorded between 2022–2023. The crisis is disproportionately affecting children; in the DRC, 70% of reported cases involve children under 15, who also represent 85% of the reported deaths. This is compounded by regional instability, including conflict-driven displacement and concurrent outbreaks of cholera and measles.

The situation has prompted a shift in global health policy. A global health emergency of international concern was officially proclaimed for the epidemic by the World Health Organization on 14 August 2024. While the 2022 outbreak was managed through vaccination and public health information, the current surge highlights a need for proactive, equitable vaccine rollouts and culturally tailored risk communication. As the virus reaches new areas—with confirmed cases in countries like Germany, Spain, and South Africa—health experts emphasize that the evolving nature of these subclades requires a more dynamic and rapid international response.

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