The rapid collapse of the Assad regime in late 2024
In short: In late November 2024, a coalition of Syrian opposition factions launched a sudden offensive that transformed from a localized campaign into a nationwide movement. Within days, the military forces of Bashar al-Assad disintegrated, leading to the fall of Aleppo and the eventual toppling of the government in Damascus.
The offensive, launched on 27 November 2024 by the Military Operations Command, was led by Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). This coalition included allied Turkish-backed groups from the Syrian National Army (SNA). While the campaign began in the Idlib and Aleppo countrysides, it quickly evolved into a massive movement that effectively dismantled the Ba'athist regime's control across Syria.
The speed of the collapse was unprecedented. After HTS entered Aleppo on 29 November, opposition forces captured dozens of towns and villages, advancing toward Hama, which fell on 5 December. By 8 December, the rebels captured Homs, severing the regime's connection to the Syrian coast. This momentum culminated on 8 December 2024, when opposition forces captured Damascus, ending the Assad family's 54-year rule.
The HTS leadership, including Abu Muhammad al-Julani (also known as Ahmed al-Sharaa), had been preparing for this shift for years. Starting in 2019, the group worked to transform its loosely organized fighters into a conventional military force, even establishing specialized units like a drone division. Strategic factors played a role in the timing; HTS leaders noted that Russia was committed to the war in Ukraine, while Iran and Hezbollah were engaged in conflict with Israel, leaving Assad's allies strategically constrained.
The fall of the regime was preceded by years of tension. Since the March 2020 Idlib ceasefire, large-scale hostilities had largely ceased, though HTS had been strengthening its capabilities. The government, described by researcher Charles Lister as a 'narco-state' sustained by the Captagon trade, faced internal corruption and increasing pressure from opposition infiltration and sniper attacks starting in late 2022.
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- Summary by Intellect · source: 2024 Syrian opposition offensives
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