Why the ground beneath our feet is sinking, from mining to shifting tectonic plates.

Nature · Published 3 October 2026 Swipe more like this →

In short: Subsidence is the downward movement of the Earth's surface, a global phenomenon driven by both natural forces and human activity. From the extraction of groundwater and petroleum to the weight of massive buildings, our interventions are causing the land to sink, creating significant risks for infrastructure and flood management.

Subsidence is defined by vertical displacement with little to no horizontal movement. While tectonic forces and the natural dissolution of carbonate rock create sinkholes, human activity is a primary driver of modern sinking. The extraction of subsurface fluids like groundwater and petroleum removes the pressure that supports overlying soil layers, leading to compaction. In extreme cases, such as in Long Beach, California, petroleum extraction caused 9 meters of subsidence over 34 years, resulting in over $100 million in infrastructure damage before stabilization efforts were implemented.

The process can be self-perpetuating in lowlands where drainage is required for habitation. Draining soil exposes organic components like peat to oxygen, causing them to oxidize and decompose, while the soil itself consolidates under increased stress. This can lead to subsidence rates as high as 5 cm per year. Furthermore, the weight of high-density urban development in cities like New York and Lagos is increasingly recognized as a factor, as the sheer mass of buildings presses down on the soil beneath.

Predicting and monitoring these shifts has become a critical field for engineers and urban planners. While mining-induced subsidence is often localized and relatively predictable, other forms require complex modeling. Techniques range from simple 1D consolidation equations to fully coupled 3D models using Biot’s theory. Modern researchers are also turning to machine learning to tackle the nonlinear nature of these problems, while Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) has emerged as a superior monitoring tool, offering the highest point density and lowest annual cost for tracking land movement across vast areas.

Ultimately, subsidence alters topography and elevates flood risks, particularly in delta plains and river flood zones. Whether through the slow compaction of sediments or the sudden collapse of limestone voids, the phenomenon serves as a stark reminder of the Earth's sensitivity to the removal of subsurface support and the weight of human civilization.

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